A decade following the UK entered into a rushed referendum that split the nation and caused disorder, a advisory comes from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is ready.
That is the message from two prominent journalists from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly tense and transformative referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can come out of the blue and can build support swiftly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our islands remains highly fragile."
New Title Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The team have examined the political, financial and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the matter with a roadshow of lectures that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everyone, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose consequences have remained undefined because then you end up with an extraordinarily polarised community where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side don't know exactly what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say that moment is looming, and a group called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, leaving it unclear whether or when there could be a national vote.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language for and against unity has masked the absence of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.
"Many are for or against the notion but the actual thinking which could extend past that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has taken place in scholarly circles but scarcely any politicians or advocates want to engage with even the essentials. For instance, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, none of the commentators endorses unification or the existing arrangement. Both writes two pieces that seek neutrality in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling economic and social statistics, previous instances and structural examples.
Discussions cover identity markers, duties, medical care, retirement funds, public liabilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to enlighten and stimulate discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there has not yet occurred a discussion," stated O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an acknowledgement of the notion that there might be valid points on either side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate claim they favour unity but oppose increased taxation or implementing a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' UK heritage.
"The Irish government must establish what the offer from Irish nationalism is aside from just stating: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride believes a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it may take place suddenly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a incompetent secretary of state who declares: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have credible, justified arguments, he said. "One side will succeed in this matter and the other side will ultimately be defeated but both parties has has something to learn from the alternative arguments."
Appeal for Broader Dialogue
Westminster must engage with the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This involves your state. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish question."
